a triarchy press publication
Managing the Future: A Guide to Forecasting and Strategic Planning in the 21st Century
by Stephen M. Millett
Publication Date: 30th November 2011
No of pages: 288
Book type: Paperback
ISBN: 978-1-908009-48-7
List Price: £25.00
Offer Price: £19.50
Copies will be shipped on or around publication date.
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Epub Version: available here
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View Sample: Scenarios, from Chapter 6
View Table of Contents
A guide to forecasting ...
Equipping your organization for an uncertain future is a daunting task. If you’re already over-stretched dealing with the pressures of today – it can seem like an impossible one.
But building future planning into your everyday practices is not only vital – it’s eminently doable.
Managing the Future offers a straightforward and pragmatic approach to strategic planning. It takes an honest look at the limitations of forecasting, and shows (through real-life examples and a wealth of experience) how managers can best use a variety of futuring methods, including scenarios, horizon scanning and trend monitoring.
Future studies and practices emphasize methods, techniques, and tools, but often lack the sound theoretical foundation enjoyed by the natural, and many of the social, sciences. Yet theoretical first principles provide the foundation for solving practical problems – including planning, investing, managing, etc. This book offers, for the first time in print, five fundamental principles for futuring and visioning:
- Futuring Principle 1: The future will be some unknown combination of continuity and change.
- Futuring Principle 2: The future can be anticipated with varying degrees of uncertainty depending upon conditions.
- Futuring Principle 3: Futuring and visioning are different but complementary perspectives of the future.
- Futuring Principle 4: The best forecasts and plans are methodically generated and provide well considered expectations for the future.
- Futuring Principle 5: There is no such thing as an immutable forecast or plan for an immutable future. Forecasts and plans must be continuously monitored, evaluated, and revised according to new data and conditions in order to improve real-time frameworks for making long-term decisions and strategies.
In outlining his Five Futuring Principles, Dr. Millett provides a clear theoretical framework for preparing an organization for the future. He then takes us through the practical steps involved in managing a forward-facing organization, including:
- managing “futuring” (the external-to-internal process of scanning the environment to anticipate the trends that will affect your organization)
- managing “visioning” (realizing the internal mission, values, aspirations and goals of an organization and its management, and then turning your organization outward to face the world)
- trend analysis as pattern recognition
- the advantages and disadvantages of expert judgement
- both intuitive and analytical scenarios for forecasting and planning.
About the Author
Stephen M. Millett received his bachelor’s degree from Miami University (Oxford, Ohio) and his MA and Ph.D. degrees in history from The Ohio State University. He served as an officer in the US Air Force before joining the professional staff at the Battelle Memorial Institute in 1979.
During his 27-year career at Battelle, Dr. Millett became an internationally respected technology forecaster and futurist. He managed over 100 major futuring and visioning projects for corporate, non-profit, R&D and government clients in North America, Europe, India, and East Asia.
He retired in 2006 and founded his own research and consulting company, Futuring Associates LLC. He is also a faculty member in the MBA program at Franklin University. Dr. Millett served as a member of the State Board of Education in Ohio from 2003 to 2010.
Readership
This is a guide for any public, private, government or non-profit organization that wants to update or improve its strategic planning capabilities, or to develop those areas of the organization that feed information and knowledge into the planning process. It is also the ideal introduction to the subject for anyone moving into a planning role.
Stephen Millett’s analysis, proposals and conclusions will be of immediate interest to those working in or studying:
- Forecasting, planning, futuring and organizational strategy
- Market/customer research and analysis and strategic marketing
- Opinion polling and surveying
- Knowledge management and Management Information Systems design and management
- Organization design and strategic decision-making at the most senior levels.
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